Tag: Peer Effects Model

[Trend Days and Rangebound Days] Forecasting

Posted on by hcarstens

Trend Days and Rangebound Days are very difficult to forecast w/ historical data. Same for Regime shifts. Forecasting a Trend Day/Rangebound Day for tomorrow on tonight’s close I’m right about 52% of the time. Peer Effects models work better, i.e, real time forecasts are better than ones based on historical data. Live Trend Odds and Read more about [Trend Days and Rangebound Days] Forecasting[…]

[Risk] Pre-Market Trend Odds Week of Feb 29

Posted on by hcarstens

Friday, March 4 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 16%, post-Employment number   Thursday, March 3 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 8%   Wednesday, March 2 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 16%   Tuesday, March 1 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 24%   Monday, February 29 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 24%   The current odds that equities, fixed, commodities and currencies Read more about [Risk] Pre-Market Trend Odds Week of Feb 29[…]