Monday, June 13, 2016 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 35% The current odds that equities, fixed, commodities and currencies will move and trend together today. The idea is that risk increases with the number of markets that are concurrently trending. This is a very simple peer effects model – a standing ovation model. So the more Read more about [Risk] Pre-Market Trend Odds Week of June 13, 2016[…]
Friday, May 20, 2016 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 19% Note: The Live Trend Odds web page is currently down for an upgrade Thursday, May 19, 2016 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 37% Note: The Live Trend Odds web page is currently down for an upgrade Wednesday, May 18, 2016 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 10% Note: The Read more about [Risk] Pre-Market Trend Odds, Week of May 16 #risk[…]
Friday, April 22, 2016 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 26% (08:43 am ct) Note: The Live Trend Odds web page is currently down for an upgrade Thursday, April 21, 2016 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 45% Note: The Live Trend Odds web page is currently down for an upgrade Wednesday, April 20, 2016 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: Read more about [Risk] Pre-Market Trend Odds Week of April 18th[…]
Friday, March 31 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 40% Note: The Live Trend Odds web page is currently down for an upgrade to the model – almost finished! Thursday, March 31 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 33% (9:45 am ct, not really pre-market) Note: The Live Trend Odds web page is currently down for an upgrade to Read more about [Risk] Pre-Market Trend Odds Week of March 28[…]
Combine the historical Trend Odds with the Equity Trend Indictor (live odds equities are trending) and the Live Trend Odds (the live odds ‘all’ the markets are trending) for the current probability today is a trend day. Both are Peer Effects models. (Note: The Live Trend Odds webpage is currently down for an upgrade) ———— Trend Days and Rangebound Days are very Read more about [Equities] Live Trend Odds, Week of March 14th[…]
Friday, March 18 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 8% Note: The Live Trend Odds web page is currently down for an upgrade Thursday, March 17 n/t, technical problems Wednesday, March 16 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 8% Note: The Live Trend Odds web page is currently down for an upgrade Tuesday, March 15 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 16% Read more about [Risk] Pre-Market Trend Odds Week of March 14th[…]
Combine the historical Trend Odds with the Equity Trend Indictor (live odds equities are trending) and the Live Trend Odds (the live odds ‘all’ the markets are trending) for the current probability today is a trend day. Both are Peer Effects models. ———— Trend Days and Rangebound Days are very difficult to forecast w/ historical data. Same for Regime shifts. When forecasting Read more about [Equities] Live Trend Odds Week of March 7 #spy #es[…]
Trend Days and Rangebound Days are very difficult to forecast w/ historical data. Same for Regime shifts. Forecasting a Trend Day/Rangebound Day for tomorrow on tonight’s close I’m right about 52% of the time. Peer Effects models work better, i.e, real time forecasts are better than ones based on historical data. Live Trend Odds and Read more about [Trend Days and Rangebound Days] Forecasting[…]
Combine the historical Trend Odds with the Equity Trend Indictor (live odds equities are trending) and the Live Trend Odds (the live odds ‘all’ the markets are trending) for the current probability today is a trend day. This is another peer effects model. Friday March 4 Pre-Market, historical Trend Odds for equities are 36%. Thursday March 3 Pre-Market, historical Trend Odds for Read more about [Equities] Live Trend Odds Week of Feb 29 #spy #es[…]
Friday, March 4 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 16%, post-Employment number Thursday, March 3 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 8% Wednesday, March 2 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 16% Tuesday, March 1 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 24% Monday, February 29 Risk Pre-Market Trend Odds: 24% The current odds that equities, fixed, commodities and currencies Read more about [Risk] Pre-Market Trend Odds Week of Feb 29[…]