Trend Days and Rangebound Days are very difficult to forecast w/ historical data. Same for Regime shifts.
Forecasting a Trend Day/Rangebound Day for tomorrow on tonight’s close I’m right about 52% of the time.
Peer Effects models work better, i.e, real time forecasts are better than ones based on historical data.
Live Trend Odds and the Equity Trend Indicator are good starts on Ovation Models.
–h