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Month: September 2013

P&L’s Turn Faster Than Historical Data #idea

Posted on September 8, 2013 by hcarstens

P&L’s turn faster than historical data. That matters.   –h  

Posted in Forecasting, Ideas, TestsTagged forecasting, P&LLeave a comment

Bayes

Posted on September 3, 2013September 3, 2013 by hcarstens

“Once I was able to see probability as the intensity of belief…” From ‘The Joy and Martyrdom of Trying to Be a Bayesian”   –h  

Posted in Forecasting, IdeasTagged Bayesian, forecasting, ProbabilityLeave a comment

Factories #idea

Posted on September 1, 2013September 1, 2013 by hcarstens

Build factories by combining stocks in an industry that cover the broadest spectrum of the industry, i.e., exploration, research production and delivery. Test the performance of the factory against the performance of the individuals. Build best factory and worst factories for a pairs trade.   –h

Posted in Ideas, TestsTagged Conglomerate, Factory, SectorLeave a comment

What We’re Working On #idea

Posted on September 1, 2013September 1, 2013 by hcarstens

This post from R-Bloggers on the Bradley-Terry model for forecasting outcomes of head-to-head match-ups is interesting. Think highly and inversely correlated markets or stocks,   –h

Posted in Forecasting, Ideas, TradingTagged Bradley Terry, Correlation, Head-to-Head, RLeave a comment

June Performance #Performance

Posted on September 1, 2013 by hcarstens

Scrambling to catch up here’s June Performance. July and August should be up tomorrow. –h

Posted in Forecasting, TradingTagged PerformanceLeave a comment

Market Stress #idea

Posted on September 1, 2013 by hcarstens

Our measure of risk and opportunity in several markets: Market Stress, August 30, 2013 Purely qualitative at this point Based on the ideas found here.   –h

Posted in Forecasting, IdeasTagged Geometry, Market Stress, Opportunity, Risk, Turning PointsLeave a comment

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