It all starts with the numbers. And counting. It gets interesting when the numbers, and the counting, take on nuance. It gets beautiful when then numbers, and the counting, paint progressively more interesting pictures. –h Henry Carstens 503-701-5741
Our end of year regression forecast for SP Cash was 1119.29 which now seems reasonable to carry over into Q1 given the amount of government intervention manipulating market movements. And our 2012 GDP forecast was for 0% growth, which is supporting of a bearish bias. Still, it’s probably a good idea get another data point into Q1, this Read more about Quick Look: SP Forecast for Q1 2012[…]
I got a new keyboard for my Mac. The new keyboard is black, just like all the keyboards for my Windows machines. Now, every time I goto edit on my Mac, I find myself using the Windows keyboard shortcuts instead of the Mac keyboard shortcuts – my typing response is being consistently triggered by the Read more about Quick Idea: Changing Colors[…]
GDP = C + I + G + (X – M) The change in GDP is just the change in the components. Consumption is about 70% of the equation, Investment 16%, Government 20% and Exports – Imports -4% With weigthings the equation looks like this after dropping Exports and Imports as having little effect: GDP Read more about Quick Tip: How to Build Your Own GDP Forecast[…]
Here’s a simple model for forecasting the closing price of the SP Cash based on the coincident annual change in price of the 30 year Bonds and VIX. Since the annual changes for Bonds and VIX aren’t available yet, the annual change as of 12/6 was used as a proxy. The Result? A 19% year-end Read more about Forecasting SP Closing Price for 2011[…]
Knowing when to improve performance by further mastering existing tools and when to invent/learn new tools is the key to both continuous improvement and mastery. –h
In forecasting, there are two variables, the Forecaster and the Forecastee. Since it is unlikely we can or should change the behavior of the Forecastee, improvement must come from improving the Forecaster. Which seems a crystalizing, if obvious, thought, –h