Vertical Solutions

A Simple Gold Study

hcarstens — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 16:32:31 +0000

Gold futures have been up on a year-to-year basis, every year since 2005.

With a z score of 4.24,

An annual return of about 12%,

A max drawdown of roughly 30%,

–h

Trend Day Forecast, April 2, 2012

hcarstens — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 10:05:24 +0000

Odds of being rangebound:

Bund: 61% rangebound

Stoxx: 66% rangebound

Bonds: 70% rangebound

SP: 56% rangebound

Gold: 64% rangebound

High intraday odds of trending and/or big moves in all of the above markets.

–h

Trend Day Forecast, Mar 30, 2012

hcarstens — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 06:44:49 +0000

Odds of being rangebound:

Bund: 85% rangebound

Stoxx: 98% rangebound

Bonds: 77% rangebound

SP: 94% rangebound

Gold: 77% rangebound

The highest intraday odds of trending and/or big moves are in Bonds and Gold.

Trend Day Forecast, Mar 26, 2012

hcarstens — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 09:17:29 +0000

Odds of being rangebound:

Bund: 56% rangebound

Stoxx: 62% rangebound

Bonds: 74% rangebound

SP: 77% rangebound

Gold: 79% rangebound

The highest intraday odds of trending and/or big moves are in the Bund and Stoxx

–h
Henry Carstens
503-701-5741

Trend Day Forecast, March 23, 2012

hcarstens — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 07:03:33 +0000

Odds of being rangebound:

Bund: 58% rangebound

Stoxx: 85% rangebound

Bonds: 81% rangebound

SP: 76% rangebound

Gold: 74% rangebound

The highest intraday odds of trending and/or big moves are in SP, Bund and Gold,

–h
Henry Carstens
503-701-5741
carstens@verticalsolutions.com

The Trend Day Forecast provides continuous Bund, Stoxx, Bonds, SP and Gold forecasts over Intraday, Swing and Multiday time periods starting w/ the European open. For more information contact Henry Carstens, carstens@verticalsolutions.com or 503-701-5741.

Trend Day Forecast, March 21, 2012

hcarstens — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 09:03:25 +0000

Odds of being rangebound:

Bund: 62% rangebound

Stoxx: 89% rangebound

Bonds: 79% rangebound

SP: 78% rangebound

Gold: 70% rangebound

The highest intraday odds of trending and or big moves are in SP, Bund and Gold,

Trend Day Forecast, March 19, 2012

hcarstens — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 09:34:48 +0000

Odds of being rangebound:

Bund: 74% rangebound

Stoxx: 98% rangebound

Bonds: 63% rangebound

SP: 80% rangebound

Gold: 69% rangebound

The highest intraday odds of trending and or big moves are in Bonds (30 yr), Bund and Gold,

Volatility

hcarstens — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 17:01:23 +0000

Volatility is your friend if you know the direction of the underlying. Less so if you do not.

–h
Henry Carstens

Trend Day Forecast, March 16, 2012

hcarstens — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 08:19:20 +0000

Odds of being rangebound:

Bund: 71% rangebound

Stoxx: 95% rangebound

Bonds: 77% rangebound

SP: 85% rangebound

Gold: 75% rangebound

The highest intraday odds of trending and or big moves are in Bonds (30 yr), Bund and Gold,

–h

Trend Day Forecast, Mar 15, 2012

hcarstens — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 09:39:36 +0000

Odds of being rangebound:

Bund: 43% rangebound

Stoxx: 96% rangebound

Bonds: 77% rangebound

SP: 78% rangebound

Gold: 74% rangebound

The highest intraday odds of trending and or big moves are in Bonds (30 yr), Bund and Gold,

–h